The hottest packaging paper production reached 6.9

In 2018, if it is used too frequently, the production volume of paper will reach 6.9 million tons, and there is much room for the concentration of the packaging paper industry to improve in the future.

China's packaging paper mainly uses waste paper as the production raw materials, mainly including white board paper, carton board paper, corrugated base paper and other paperboards, which are widely used to package food, drugs, household appliances, daily necessities, needle and cotton fabrics, cultural goods, etc., and the scope of use covers all fields of national production and life, It is one of the paper types with the largest proportion of paper and paperboard consumption in China. Paper packaging benefits from the characteristics of easy processing, easy preservation, convenient transportation, printability, recyclability and degradation, which is in line with the development trend of "green packaging", and the substitutability of plastic, metal, glass and other packaging materials is gradually enhanced

with economic development, the demand for wrapping paper will increase steadily in the future. Packaging paper mainly includes box board paper and corrugated paper. 20% to 30% of the corresponding terminal demand is for export goods. Among domestic products, food and beverage/household appliances/household chemicals and express/heavy truck and chemical packaging account for 40%/10%/10%/15% respectively. Therefore, the demand for wrapping paper is closely related to the macroeconomic environment. At present, China still maintains an economic growth of more than 6%, and the demand for wrapping paper in China will continue to rise steadily. At the same time, with the rapid development of e-commerce and express business, the CAGR of express business above Designated Size reached 42.1% from 2008 to 2018, and has maintained a growth rate of more than 20% since 2018, which will further stimulate the demand for packaging paper in the future

China's express business volume is growing rapidly

data source: public data collation

under the trend of environmental protection, the substitution effect of wrapping paper continues to appear, and the ceiling of the industry will be high in the future. Packaging can be mainly divided into paper packaging, plastic packaging and metal packaging, accounting for 44% and 38% respectively. Simply put,%/5%. Plastic is non degradable and has poor environmental protection performance. Paper packaging has more environmental protection advantages than plastic packaging. 8million tons of plastic waste are discharged into the sea every year. More than 200 countries have signed the United Nations resolution to combat marine plastic pollution. Europe has issued a "plastic ban order", and the trend of environmental protection will continue in the future. At the same time, metal packaging cannot meet the lightweight requirements, and it is expected that the substitution effect of paper packaging on plastic and metal packaging will continue to appear in the future. Compared with developed countries, the per capita consumption of wrapping paper in the United States/Japan/Europe has reached US $311/385/460/year/person, while in China, it is only US $115/year/person. In the future, the ceiling of the industry will be high

the per capita consumption of packaging paper in China is far lower than that in developed countries

data source: public data processing

the production of packaging paper in 2018 was 6.9 million tons, an increase of -0.72% over the previous year; Consumption was 7.01 million tons, an increase of -0.85% over the previous year. From 2009 to 2018, the average annual growth rate of production was 2.05%, and the average annual growth rate of consumption was 1.99%

data trend chart of China's packaging paper consumption and output in (unit: 10000 tons)

data source: public data collation

the concentration of the packaging paper industry is still low, and there is large room for the integration of leading enterprises. Carton board cr4=45%. In 2018, the total capacity of carton board was 35.68 million tons, and the capacity of Nine Dragons/Levin/Shanying/Jingxing paper industry, the top four paper mills, was 6.5/587/275/1million tons, accounting for 18.2%/16.5%/7.7%/2.8% of the total capacity respectively

corrugated paper cr4=23%. In 2018, the total capacity of copper paper was 6.6 million tons, and the capacity of Nine Dragons/Golden Phoenix/Rongcheng/Shanying paper industry, the top four paper mills, was 365/170/107/800000 tons, accounting for 11.6%/5.4%/3.4%/2.5% of the total capacity respectively. Under the influence of high raw material costs and stricter environmental protection supervision, the industry continues to integrate, and there is great room for concentration improvement in the future

the output/apparent consumption of carton board in 2018 were 23.96/25.94 million tons, with a year-on-year change of -7.3%/-4.3% respectively; Corrugated paper output/apparent consumption were 1946/20.58 million tons, with a year-on-year change of -0.2%/2.2% respectively

carton paper production capacity and year-on-year growth rate

data source: public data collation

corrugated paper production capacity and year-on-year growth rate

data source: public data collation

carton paper production and consumption

data source: public data collation

corrugated paper production and consumption

data source: public data collation

before the introduction of the waste prohibition policy, more than half of domestic waste paper raw materials depended on imports. The quality of external waste is good, which can be used to produce high-end demand. Special attention is paid to packaging paper. The quality of domestic waste fiber is poor, which is difficult to meet the requirements of some products. American waste is mainly used in foreign waste. The raw material of American packaging paper is mostly wood pulp, so the fiber quality is good, and it can be used to produce relatively high-grade packaging paper. Domestic waste mainly comes from domestic packaging paper, and the fiber is poor after repeated use, which is difficult to meet the production requirements of some high-end finished paper. The waste ban policy was introduced in 2017. In 2016 and before, more than 50% of domestic waste paper demand was met by imported waste paper. After the introduction of the waste ban policy, the proportion of imported waste paper usage in 2017/2018 decreased to 47.3%/32.7%

domestic waste paper raw materials mainly rely on imports

data source: public data collation

the policy of imported waste paper continued to be tightened, and the amount of waste paper approval fell sharply. In 2018, it was proposed to "prohibit all imports of solid wastes before 2020". Under the influence of the policy, the amount of foreign waste approval fell sharply, and the quota of foreign waste in 2017/2018 was 28.11/18.15 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 26%/35% respectively; As of July 2019, the amount of foreign waste approval was 9.93 million tons, a decrease of 21.3% over the same period last year, and the annual total is expected to drop to about 10million tons

the import policy of waste paper is becoming stricter

data source: public data collation

the price of domestic waste has climbed to a record high, and the price difference of foreign waste has widened. Under the catalysis of the 2017h2 policy, the price of domestic waste rose rapidly, reaching a record high of 3100 yuan/ton in 2018. Since 2018, the price of domestic waste has fallen back. At present, the price of domestic waste has fallen back to 2000-2100 yuan/ton, which is still 67% higher than the average level of 15-16 years, although it is lower than the historical high. Due to the shortage of domestic waste paper supply in the future, the price is expected to remain at a high level of more than 2000 yuan/ton

the price of national waste remains at a historical high

the energy density of metal air batteries is as high as 800 wh/kg

data source: public data collection